The scrutiny of Sean Dyche’s substitutions or lack thereof returns. Ashley Young’s late own goal in Saturday’s 1-1 draw with Brighton may have been a massive slice of unfortunate luck, but some fans still held the Everton boss partially responsible.
It had taken Dyche until the 90th minute five minutes after Brighton had scored to make his first substitution, even though his squad had played three times in six days and included Nathan Patterson, Arnaut Danjuma, and Betho on the bench. This is hardly out of the ordinary for him.As Dyche has previously stated, he only looks to make adjustments when he believes the team is not playing up to par or when an injury or tiredness forces him to replace a player.Last season, Dyche said, “I don’t tinker too much if the team is operating in the manner that I think is right.” “The information on that and my stats have paid me back.”
To be honest, it can be challenging to measure how well a manager uses the players who start games on the bench. We may contrast the quantity of substitutes used, the direct impact each player has on the score, and the total amount of goals they have contributed.However, it is impossible to guess what would have happened if, say, Young, 38, had been substituted with the much younger Patterson, 22; at that point, Everton was leading Brighton.
Football’s first known substitution coach is consultant Sammy Lander, who served as the team’s first-ever substitute coach while at NFL team AFC Wimbledon.
According to Lander, “there is never one metric which shows how good or bad a sub is.” “There are a ton of factors to think about.”To identify the best answer, you must adopt a comprehensive strategy.By now, everyone knows that Dyche doesn’t often substitute.
The only injuredIn comparison to Everton, Crystal Palace has made fewer alterations for the 2023–24 Premier League. Last season, Everton—which was managed by Frank Lampard until Dyche was hired at the end of January also utilized the fewest substitutes.
At Everton, the former Burnley manager seems to be doing a good job, at least in terms of holding onto leads. They have scored the opening goal in 14 games in all competitions under Dyche, and they have won 10 of those games and not lost one.
Fewer substitutes “seem to work better for him to have a more successful result,” according to Lander. “You need to be aware of your squad. “Sometimes the key is to use substitutes more well and less frequently. Pep Guardiola, the manager of title-bound Manchester City, used the second fewest substitutions (123 total, just seven more than Everton) in the previous campaign. When City is comfortably winning and wants to make changes for things like fitness, that’s when they make the majority of their substitutions.
Though his adjustments are not very successful, the data reveals that Dyche rolls the dice more frequently when his team is losing. Everton has won five points from losing positions in 29 Premier League games since his arrival in the middle of the previous campaign. For comparison, among his three direct predecessors at Goodison, Lampard scored nine points in 38 games, Rafa Benitez scored eleven in 19 games, and Carlo Ancelotti scored thirteen in 58 games.
Of the 16 substitutes Dyche has made when Everton has fallen behind this season, 11 have resulted in the scoreboard remaining the same after the change, and five have caused it to worsen for his team.This season’s 2-1 home loss to Luton served as an example of Dyche maybe overreacting to the situation. With a goal deficit, he substituted winger Jack Harrison for holding midfielder Idrissa Gueye at halftime.
An hour later, he introduced striker Beto and switched to an ultra-direct 4-4-2 with two target men.Everton didn’t play badly in the first half; in fact, they had the better opportunities but lost to two careless set-piece goals. However, after the aforementioned adjustments were made, they hardly ever posed a danger. Even though he had brought in more attacking skill, the team’s fundamental structure had been undermined.
“They’re yet to come back from a losing position this season and win with a sub on the pitch,” says Lander. “Across all these subs, on only one occasion has a sub come on and made the result better. That’s a telling stat. There’s definitely a process here that’s not quite working or that needs more deliberateness. “This isn’t a problem unique to Dyche’s team either. The data was like that under Lampard as well.”
The situation is more nuanced than it may appear at first glance. he fact some of these issues pre-date Dyche suggests Everton have not always had positive game-changing options in their ranks. Or, to some extent, that successive managers have not trusted them to perform the job at hand.
Whatever the answer may be, one of the frustrations for supporters of late has been the apparent unwillingness of Dyche to trust those outside his chosen starting line-up even though Everton now appear to have greater depth and quality to draw on from the bench, with Beto and Danjuma able to bring dynamism and Patterson and soon-to-be-fit-again captain Seamus Coleman providing alternatives to Young.
Lander makes the point that good players don’t necessarily make good substitutes and that players and coaches must be on board to improve the team’s overall performance.
In his capacity as a substitution consultant, he runs the figures, evaluates which players fit best in each circumstance, and provides the manager with that knowledge. He also helps possible substitutes become more prepared. This may entail developing training plans for the half-time interval that go beyond simple running or two-touch exercises.
With teams now permitted to name nine-strong benches and bring five of them onto the pitch, making effective changes is an increasingly important part of the game; a way of finding marginal gains in a fiercely competitive environment.
“You don’t just learn how to be a good substitute,” Lander says. “It’s difficult, and there are so many challenges you face. It’s not just a manager’s fault or a player’s fault — you need that middle ground where both parties are doing the right things. But teams that use substitutions best do have a notable advantage across a season.
“The data suggests Everton’s subs aren’t affecting results in a positive way when they’re behind. You could argue it’s the right decision (not to always make changes when ahead), but the league is intense and sometimes you might need subs.” When it comes to holding onto leads, Dyche seems to be right in his assessment that the “numbers pay him back”.
But finding the right formula to turn games in Everton’s favour is the next hurdle to clear if he is to help them stabilise after two seasons of dicing with relegation.
