The 49ers will see to snap a two-game losing streak on Sunday against a Cincinnati Bengals group coming off a bye week. On the surface, usually a Bengals defense that has given up 13, 20, and 16 in three of its final four recreations. But a more profound jump recommends that this unit has been more blessed than great.
Let’s see what to anticipate when the 49ers have the ball.
Bengals by the numbers
The Bengals are normal over the board in most measurements, but are one of the most noticeably awful hurrying guards within the NFL. Obnoxiously, the 49ers stay among the cream of the edit:
49ers offense vs. Bengals defense
Stat 49ers offense Bengals defense
Stat 49ers offense Bengals defense
Passing DVOA 1 11
Surging DVOA 4 27
Yards per drive 4 14
Focuses per drive 2 15
Turnovers per drive 8 9
Victory rate per drive 2 15
EPA per dropback 1 9
EPA per surge 8 26
Weight Rate 2 13
Balanced Pillage Rate 13 10
The 49ers offense has played the 9th-toughest plan of protections, whereas the Bengals have confronted the 12th-toughest plan of offenses, per DVOA.
In Week 5, the Cardinals ran for 142 yards, averaging 6.5 yards per carry on 22 endeavors. The week earlier, Derrick Henry and the Titans amassed 173 surging yards on 33 carries, great for 5.2 yards per endeavor. In Week 2, the Ravens ran for 178 yards.
Harm upgrades
This would be a extraordinary time for the 49ers to urge cleared out handle Trent Williams back. 49ers common chief John Lynch talked with KNBR on the Murph and Mac Appear Friday morning almost Williams:
“Trent’s advancing well. Trent may be a competitor of all competitors. And he had that lower leg and was truly adapting towards playing final week. He fair couldn’t get there. He’s not practiced this week. So I think nowadays is progressing to be a huge day. We don’t do a ton on Friday, but it’s attending to be a huge day in terms of feeling like, affirm, I’m feeling superior. I think I can do this.
And Trent’s the sort of player you wait right up until Sunday in case you’ve got to. I figure it does deliver you a few certainty that Trent’s a prepared player. You believe his point of see, once the specialists clear him, as to whether he can go, and after that knowing he’s got a few time to mend up after since of the bye week. In case Trent can play, he’ll play. And nowadays and the another couple of days will be enormous in terms of proceeding the recuperating prepare, so he can go function.”
The 49ers will miss Deebo Samuel once once more. There’s no supplanting Samuel. He’s a unicorn when it comes to his aptitude set. Deebois sweet for at slightest one unstable pick up per amusement, and he for the most part turns a 2-yard pick up into a 9-yard gain.
Whittling down is starting to take its toll on the Niners as we close mid-season. Against a lackluster surge defense just like the Bengals, Williams administrations may truly offer assistance the 49ers running amusement get back on track and break Christian McCaffrey’s mini-slump.
Which QB will we see?
Brock Purdy took portion amid person drills on Thursday, which could be a positive advancement that he’ll play this Sunday against the Bengals. After assist audit, Purdy played shockingly well against the Vikings:
A few investigators are beneath the impression that the 49ers won’t skip a beat with Sam Darnold beneath center. Darnold has way better physical tools, but Purdy’s preparing abilities, knowing where to go with the football, and readiness to utilize the whole field has taken this offense to concealed levels.
Can Darnold do the same? That remains to be seen. There’s no gray zone when it comes to Purdy, as he’s demonstrated it. Darnold has not.
The 49ers opened up as 5.5-point favorites over the Bengals. Once it was reported that Purdy was within the concussion convention, that number plunged to 3.5. As of Friday morning, after Purdy practiced, that number is trending back within the 49ers heading, because it sits at 4.
Purdy having one less day to clear the concussion convention is what appears to be the stress. That’s since no player who was set within the convention has been cleared the same week. Not the taking after, but the same.
Lynch reiterated Kyle Shanahan’s certainty in Darnold in case he’s beneath center, saying, “we’ve got a part of conviction in Sam Darnold and what he gives. He’s played in this association at a tall level, and I think he could be a extraordinary fit for what we do. So we’ve got a part of conviction in Sam.”
In the event that we center on the fit, Darnold’s expertise set fits what Shanahan wants to do. Darnold should play on time and keep the offense ahead of plan.
Matchup preferences
When the Bengals line up in their base defense, they’re 23rd in victory rate. When the 49ers line up in their base offense — when Kyle Juszczyk is on the field — they’re eighth when Juszczyk is at fullback and to begin with when he lines up as a tight conclusion.
Based on DVOA, the Bengals are 22nd at guarding the opposition’s WR2 and 27th at protecting tight closes. They’re moreover 20th at taking absent passes to running backs.
Nelson Agholor and Zay Blossoms combined to have nine gatherings for 125 yards in Week 2. In Week 3, Rams tight conclusion Tyler Higbee had five gatherings for 71 yards. The Titans and Cardinals both found victory from their auxiliary recipients whereas Tyler Lockett had94 receiving yards some time recently the Bengals bye week.
This needs to be a George Kittle week. I thought Shanahan utilized Kittle to flawlessness against the Vikings. Kittle wrapped up with five catches for 78 yards on seven targets. He ought to be in line for comparable numbers this week.
Cincy’s linebackers in scope against the Seahawks permitted 16 gatherings for 166 yards on 16 targets. Hi, Kittle.
How the Bengals get off the field
Bengals cautious facilitator Lou Anarumo cherishes to utilize pre-snap camouflages and late revolutions from his securities.
Purdy, or Darnold, will see a larger part of single-high security looks. The Bengals run the third-highest rate of a one-high shell within the NFL. Their success rate is 21st within the alliance, as they are a pre-dominant zone scope group that blitzes at a association normal rate.
Cincinnati is willing to allow up yards between the 20s as they trust to drive you into a turnover, pillage you, or get you to settle for a field objective interior of the ruddy zone.
The Seahawks were an humiliating 1-for-5 interior of the ruddy zone against the Bengals. They too turned the ball over twice. Geno Smith was sacked five times. The Cardinals had three turnovers. The Rams had two turnovers, permitted six sacks, and went 1-for-4 against the Bengals interior of the ruddy zone.
To the Bengals credit, weight causes change. The trio of Josh Dobbs, Matthew Stafford, and Geno Smith all see their numbers drop off a cliff beneath weight, particularly their turnover commendable tosses.
Against each NFL West rival, the Bengals have combined for an extraordinary 24 quarterback hits. Purdy’s portability spared the day on many occasions against the Vikings, and he may got to utilize his legs to buy time to create plays once more on Sunday.
Trey Hendrickson is among the association pioneers in add up to weights and sacks. He’s moment within the alliance in win rate, per PFF. Sam Hubbard is third within the NFL in QB hits.
The Niners require more out of Colton McKivitz. In pass security, there’s no way to sugarcoat it. McKivitz has been a calamity. Among 136 hostile linemen with at slightest 150 pass blocking snaps, McKivitz positions 125th in blown piece rate, per Sports Data Arrangements.
Shanahan chosen to take off tight closes Kittle and Charlie Woerner in for pass security on Monday night to secure his handles. On the off chance that Williams is out, he’ll likely do the same.
Spencer Burford positions 96th. He hasn’t precisely taken the second-year jump the 49ers had trusted for. The great news is the other three linemen are holding their possess, for the foremost portion. Center Jake Brendel is 44th in blown-block rate, whereas Trent Williams is 29th and Aaron Banks could be a shocking 22nd.
The arrange must be to require Hendrickson out of the amusement arrange. The Bengals don’t have another rusher interior of the best 72 for win rate. They’re not an excessively athletic gather within the same vein as the Cattle rustlers and Browns.
But their auxiliary is quick, in spite of the fact that unpracticed. I’d anticipate Shanahan to draw up plays that messes with the Bengals’ eye teach. In a amusement where Brandon Aiyuk saw one target after the last mentioned parcel of the moment quarter, Sunday ought to be anovercorrection amusement that sees Aiyuk intensely included.
At whatever point the 49ers run their offense between the trio of Aiyuk-McCaffrey-Kittle, they’re relentless. The Bengals don’t have the steeds to moderate the Niners down. Being back at Levi’s Stadium ought to give the offense a level of consolation.
The as it were thing that’s ceased Purdy and company has been themselves. It’s extreme to imagine that happening for a third amusement in a push, particularly at domestic.
