Over the last eight months, four teams have given up on a former first-round quarterback and traded them away for late-round draft capital. The Dallas Cowboys were the first team to trade for such a player when they gave up this year’s fourth-round draft pick to the San Francisco 49ers for the rights to Trey Lance in August of last year.
Over the last month, three more former first-round quarterbacks have been traded away and the price seems to get lower and lower. It’s hard to say what each team’s intentions are for them to make such deals. Some are just looking for a quality backup, whereas others might want to kick the tires on a potential heir to the throne over what they currently have in the driver’s seat. Today, we’ll examine these trades more closely and show why the Cowboys came out of all these trades as the biggest losers.
WHO PAID THE LEAST?
QB trades
A fourth-round draft pick didn’t seem so expensive last August, but now we’ve seen Mac Jones and Justin Fields be dealt away for a sixth-round pick. Technically, the Pittsburgh Steelers might have to give up a fourth-rounder instead if Fields ends up playing more than half the snaps next season. So, in terms of who’s ultimately the cheapest, that honor belongs to Mac Jones.
On the surface, it looked like the Philadelphia Eagles paid the most for Kenny Pickett by giving up a third-round pick, but they also received the Steelers’ fourth-round pick in exchange. They also get a couple of future seventh-rounders as well. When you look at the NFL trade value chart and do the math, the Eagles gave up the equivalent of a fourth-round draft for Pickett, very similar to Dallas.
WHO HAS THE MOST EXPERIENCED QB?
Mac Jones has the most NFL experience as he has started 42 games in his career, four more than Fields. Overall, both Jones and Fields have similar passing numbers, except Fields has shown a slight improvement over his years whereas Jones has been faltering as of late. Additionally, Fields also has value as a runner, including a 1,143-yard season in 2022.
Pickett has only played two seasons compared to three by Jones and Fields, but he hasn’t shown much in either year to make anyone feel good about his trajectory.
Lance is the biggest wild card of them all with only four NFL starts under his belt and he hasn’t taken an official snap in 560 days. Add that to a very raw college career and it’s hard to know what the future holds for this.
Best backup QB candidate: Justin Fields
Best upside starter candidate: Justin Fields and Trey Lance
WHO HAS THE MOST FLEXIBILITY?
Player Control
All these teams took a chance on these former first-rounders. With more development, they hope they’ll turn into a better player. Benefitting from further development that turns into an improved future performance, the opportunity needs to be there. How committed are these teams to their current quarterbacks? Will there be a window where these teams can assess their progress and make an informed decision about their future?
Every quarterback not named Pickett is in the last year of their rookie deal. All those teams can exercise their fifth-year option of $22-$26 million for the 2025 season. The tricky part is those teams must decide by May 2nd this year.
For the Jaguars, this decision is rather easy. Trevor Lawrence is still their undisputed quarterback. He’s coming off back-to-back 4,000-yard seasons, including a Pro Bowl campaign in 2022. The Jags will exercise a fifth-year option next month, but it will be for Lawrence and not Jones.
The Lance situation is a weird one as there are many layers. The Cowboys have yet to extend Dak Prescott, but it’s hard to envision the team moving on from him. Prescott has strung together multiple Pro Bowl seasons and is coming off a year where he finished second in NFL MVP voting. Moving on from Dak is quite bold and borderline crazy. Of course, Jerry Jones is no stranger to either of those. Sadly, the Cowboys didn’t see a lick of Lance last year and won’t until training camp and preseason of this year so it appears the Cowboys have shown their hand in how they’re handling the quarterback position, and that is Prescott will soon be extended meaning Lance will serve as a backup/trade bait for the upcoming season.
The Steelers have a tough decision. They have Russell Wilson under player control for one year, but what happens after this season? Look for them to hedge their bets and keep both options available for the future with Fields’ fifth-year option a possibility.
The Eagles have the most player control with Pickett still having two more years left on his rookie deal. Additionally, they’ll have him on the roster for a year before deciding if they want to pick up his fifth-year option. They also are heavily committed to Jalen Hurts over the next several years. Hurts had a great season in 2022 but threw 23 touchdowns and 15 interceptions last year which is the same TD/INT totals Prescott had when everyone was trying to throw him to the curb. Unless things go south for Hurts, he should be the Eagles quarterback for the foreseeable future with Pickett just hanging around as a potential backup.
