The Buffalo Bills are crashing and the blame shouldn’t be on Josh Allen
This season, the quarterback has played sloppily, but the general management hasn’t been able to assemble a strong team around him.
Connolly Oliver
Thu, Nov 16, 2023, 09:00 GMT 73
Heads roll following a dismal defeat. That is the NFL’s operating model.
The Buffalo Bills decided to fire offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey following the team’s Monday Night Football loss to the Denver Broncos, 24-22.
Despite not being the head coach of the defense, Dorsey’s team finished the game with 12 men on the field due to a penalty that allowed Wil Lutz to miss his initial try at the game-winning field goal, giving the Broncos a second opportunity. Consider that for the most of the season, the Bills’ offense has performed admirably. Or that, primarily as a result of injuries on the defensive end of the ball, the offense had the worst starting field position in the league from weeks five to ten. Or that Dorsey failed to call plays that resulted in fumbles or drops, issues that have dogged his team in recent weeks.
The fact that the Bills have only lost one possession in each of their five games this season—a famously flawed metric to evaluate any team—doesn’t seem to matter either.
Organizations feel compelled to act when things seem hopeless. And ever since losing to Kansas City in the playoffs in 2022 for just 13 seconds, the Bills have been in a desperate situation. It’s the reason they gave Von Miller a whopping contract in 2022 during his free agency, and why, despite Frazier’s ability to lead a top-seven unit, they quietly parted company with him this past offseason.
In a claimed Super Bowl season, when you’re 5-5, somebody has to give up.
However, Dorsey shouldn’t escape any consequences entirely. Yes, Dorsey’s offense was the best in the league at the time of his termination, finishing first in redzone efficiency, third in yards per play, second in third-down conversion percentage, and third in DVOA. Regardless of your metric, the Bills rank among the top three. However, it’s difficult to distinguish between Allen’s individual brilliance and the coach’s influence; the Bills’ decision to let Dorsey go is their way of indicating that the offense was successful despite the coach’s architectural design.
Allen is the next target in the customary blame-fest, following Dorsey. The “are we sure he’s good” part of Allen’s career began this week, and it will shortly be followed by the customary “why can’t he get it done in the big one” sequel. What nonsense. In the RBSDM composite, which gauges a play’s worth and the extent to which the quarterback can be held accountable for it, Allen comes in second.
However, yards and fancy measures don’t determine a game’s outcome. Turnovers occur.
Allen is still coughing up balls at a pace that leads the league. With 25 interceptions, the most in the league, and eight fumble losses, the second-highest total in the league, Allen has led the NFL in turnovers since 2022. Nevertheless, their figures contain noise.
Turnover luck is erratic; occasionally a mishandled ball bounces to a rival, and other times it finds a teammate. Additionally, Allen has behaved less carelessly this season than he did last. 4.2% of Allen’s throws were considered turnover-worthy by PFF during the previous season. This season, it has dropped to 2.4%, ranking him 27th among qualified quarterbacks and surpassing the three MVP front-runners, Patrick Mahomes (3.3%), Jalen Hurts (3.2%), and Lamar Jackson (3%)..
