While Young has struggled on a 1-10 Panthers team, Stroud may one day be looked at as the one who got away. The Houston Texans rookie has 2,962 passing yards and is on pace to shatter Andrew Luck’s 2012 rookie passing record of 4,374 yards, and finish with 28 touchdown passes, which would be the second most by any rookie in NFL history after Justin Herbert’s 31 in 2020.

Stroud has entered the MVP conversation after his first nine games as a pro. Meanwhile, the Bears still aren’t certain whether Fields is their long-term answer at quarterback after 32 starts since 2021.

As the Bears close in the No. 1 pick for a second straight year (ESPN FPI gives Chicago a 69% chance to draft first overall because they own the Panthers pick), Poles’ logic from the pre-draft process now applies to his current QB. Fields needs to prove he is the Bears quarterback of the future, especially with two highly touted prospects in the 2024 draft — USC’s Caleb Williams and North Carolina’s Drake Maye.

In the past 20 years, eight NFL franchises, including the Bears’ previous regime, have selected a quarterback in the first round only to draft another within the next four years. That’s how Fields made his way to the Bears as the No. 11 pick in 2021, four years after Chicago passed on Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson to draft Mitch Trubisky at No. 2.

In five months, the Bears may choose to go that route again if what they see from Fields, along with their evaluation of the draft’s top quarterbacks, lead the organization to start over. Here are three reasons the Bears could move on from Fields and why they could stick with him if they get the top pick.

Why the Bears could part ways with Fields if they get the No. 1 pick

Either Caleb Williams or Drake Maye is too good to pass up

The Bears don’t want to miss out on another Stroud. Poles and his scouting staff have watched Williams and Maye in person during the 2023 season, along with other top quarterbacks (such as Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy) and will weigh their evaluation against what they see as Fields’ ceiling.

ESPN contacted eight NFL scouts and executives who said Williams is the can’t-miss prospect.

“I thought from last year’s film, he would be top 10 the day he showed up,” an AFC executive said on the condition of anonymity.

A top 10 draft pick? Or top 10 quarterback when he gets to the NFL?

“The latter,” he clarified.

The USC quarterback won the Heisman in 2022 after throwing for 4,537 yards, 42 touchdowns and five interceptions. Williams’ numbers dipped in 2023 as the Trojans stumbled down the stretch to a 7-5 finish, but the quarterback threw for 3,633 yards, 40 touchdowns and five interceptions.

“A lot of the things they’re asking Fields to do, Caleb does better,” an NFC national scout said. “This guy thrives on his ability to improv, create on his own and turn a dead play into a highlight.”

However, some believe the gap isn’t as wide between Williams and Maye. The North Carolina quarterback threw for 3,354 yards, 22 touchdowns and seven interceptions in his third season.

“I’ve got Caleb No. 1, but I really don’t think Drake’s as far off as people think,” an AFC area scout said. “He’s been consistent all season long, even without his top receiver (Tez Walker was ineligible for UNC’s first four games). His size, arm strength, accuracy and mobility are going to translate well.”

Fields has had three years to prove he’s the franchise QB, yet the debate continues

As the clock wound down on the Bears in an eventual 31-26 loss to the Detroit Lions last Sunday, Fields had one final opportunity to get his team back in the game. Up to that point, Fields had put together a strong performance in his first game back since dislocating his right thumb on Oct. 15. He had over 250 yards passing and rushing and helped Chicago build a 12-point lead with over four minutes remaining. He had only been sacked once and had not turned the ball over.

On the first play of Chicago’s last drive, Fields was strip-sacked, and the ball went out of the back of the end zone for a safety.

Chicago’s fate was similar against Denver, when Fields played great for three quarters. As the Bears blew a 21-point lead, the team’s chances of a last-second comeback were halted when Fields threw an interception.

Chicago is looking closely at Fields’ performance in critical situations to determine growth. According to ESPN Stats & Information, Fields has a 4.1 Total QBR with two or fewer minutes remaining in either half with his team trailing this season, which is the worst of any starting quarterback. His completion percentage above expected in those moments is minus-19.4%, just above the Browns’ PJ Walker and Watson and the New York Giants’ Tommy DeVito.

Over the course of three years with his team trailing in the final two minutes, Fields has completed 57.4% of his passes, thrown two touchdowns and six interceptions and taken nine sacks. With the Bears trailing in the final four minutes, Fields completed 54.5% of his passes, threw three touchdowns, nine interceptions and took 13 sacks.

“That’s where we have to improve as a football team. Not just Justin,” coach Matt Eberflus said. “It’s us as a group. That’s where I think we take the next step to finishing games, and of course we’ve done that in some other games, but again we got to do that versus quality opponents.”

Resetting the clock on a rookie QB contract

The Bears have an estimated $82.4 million in salary cap space for 2024. That capital will be spent on premium positions to continue building the roster. Unless the Bears are certain Fields is their long-term answer, tying up resources in the 24-year-old might not be their best financial option.

Chicago has until May 2024 to exercise Fields’ fifth-year option, which is an estimated $23.3 million. Given the deadline is after the draft, if the Bears choose to draft a QB, their savings at the position will benefit roster building in the short and long term.

“Justin Fields is going to have to play out of his mind, because if it’s close, the economics are so compelling to take another quarterback to reset the clock,” ESPN front office insider Mike Tannenbaum said. “If you could reset the clock on a rookie quarterback alone, Justin Fields would have to be two to three times the player to not take a quarterback because you have to think about all those other players you can add with the savings.”

​​Why the Bears could keep Fields if they get the No. 1 pick

Fields is one of the best rushing QBs

Coming off injury, Fields had a career-high 14 designed runs against the Lions, leading to a team-high 104 rushing yards.

Fields, 24, has established himself as one of the league’s best rushing quarterbacks, though it was not a part of his identity much through his first six games of this season. The Bears have been adamant that while they’ve wanted Fields to develop as a passer, they did not want to take away the explosive gains he makes as a runner, like a 29-yard scramble in Detroit that got the Bears in position to score in the fourth quarter.

While Fields’ 18 rushing attempts against Detroit may not be the norm every week, the Bears believe having their quarterback operate a big portion of their offense with his legs is sustainable, so long as he protects himself from hits.

“It should be around in that range, but you don’t want it to be that high all the time,” Eberflus said. “He’s going to have to run when he scrambles around and does a good job. Where I do think he did a good job was, he made connections down the field and had his eyes down the field before he crossed the line.”

Some of Fields’ passing stats have improved each of his first three seasons

Despite having two head coaches and two offensive coordinators through his first three NFL seasons, Fields has shown growth as a passer everywhere except his QBR (45.1), which currently ranks 23rd. His completion percentage, touchdown percentage, yards per attempt and passer rating have steadily increased as he’s gotten more comfortable making plays from the pocket.

The growth sometimes appears marginal, given Fields has thrown for more than 300 yards once (335 vs. Denver, along with passing TDs), but if the Bears believe they can find the balance of production Fields displayed against Detroit (169 yards passing, 104 rushing) routinely, passing numbers will be made up for by the quarterback’s output in the run game.

Fields also hasn’t had the benefit of a true No. 1 receiver until this season with DJ Moore, and the Bears’ offensive line has struggled protecting its quarterback, although some of the blame rests on Fields taking too long to throw the ball.

Use two top-4 draft picks, or trade down to get more picks, to add talent

Since last offseason, Poles has invested money and draft capital in every premium position outside of quarterback.

He sent the No. 1 overall pick to Carolina in exchange for Moore and draft capital. He used a first-round pick on right tackle Darnell Wright, drafted a starting cornerback in Tyrique Stevenson and made Montez Sweat the fifth-highest paid edge rusher after trading a second-round pick to then quickly extend the defensive end.

The Bears are currently slated to draft No. 1, via Carolina’s pick, and fourth with their own first-round selection. If Fields replicates his performance against Detroit multiple times in his final six games, the Bears’ evaluation gets more challenging.

“That muddied the waters, for sure,” said Josh Lucas, who was the Bears’ director of player personnel from 2015 to ’21. “If he’s as good or better as he was [in Detroit] in four or five of their last six games … you start talking about, man, those two picks. If it’s the best pass-rusher in the draft and the best receiver in the draft, is Justin good enough to carry a really good team? In my opinion, yes.”

In that scenario, a Bears team with Ohio State wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr., who is the first player in school history to record back-to-back 1,000 yard receiving seasons, could follow Poles’ blueprint of adding weapons. Chicago also needs to address its offensive line, potentially at left tackle and center, along with adding another pass-rusher. Many of those solutions could come via the draft if the Bears choose to hang onto Fields, forgo a quarterback and move back in the draft order.

“The reality is, if they keep Justin, you’re looking at two top-10 picks and a bunch of other stuff on top of that,” Lucas said. “They’ll end up having a really good roster even if they hit on 60% of those picks, because they’re not that far right now. They’re just really weak in certain spots.”

FRISCO, Texas — When they were strangers brought together by a common friend and the thought that one day they would be Dallas Cowboys teammates was unfathomable, Dak Prescott was doing his best to distract Brandon Aubrey.

This was about a year into Aubrey’s journey to the NFL — when dreaming of playing for his hometown team, making the first 31 field goal attempts of his career and becoming the league’s scoring leader as a rookie seemed outlandish.

Heck, just months earlier in 2019, Aubrey was kicking side by side with middle and high schoolers.

Prescott shot a text to Aubrey’s kicking coach, Brian Egan, a friend and teammate at Mississippi State, asking what Egan was doing. Egan was at the Warren Sports Complex in Frisco, Texas, working out a couple of his kickers, including Aubrey. It’s 7 miles away from The Star, but galaxies away from the NFL.

The Cowboys quarterback told Egan he was coming over.

“At the time, neither of them knew [Prescott was coming],” Egan said. “They knew me and him had a relationship from being good friends in college, but this was a surprise treat for the boys. It did put a little extra pressure on them, like, ‘Let’s see what they can do.'”

Soon, Prescott set up a kicking competition and was barking instructions. The winner would get $200.

“Forty-eight yard line, left hash,” he said.

“Thirty-three yards, middle,” he said.

The other kicker said he could make all 10 kicks. He made eight.

Prescott had a couple of friends with him.

“They were pretending to be fans of the opposition’s team,” Aubrey said. “Just kind of booing you and whatnot, making it as realistic as possible.”

Aubrey made nine.

“Butter” — Prescott’s nickname for Aubrey — may not have been born that day, but when the Cowboys signed Aubrey before training camp, the quarterback had a feeling about him.

“I was just like, ‘Hey, my buddy’s an athlete,'” Prescott said. “I was cheering for him in that whole competition, but I wasn’t sure. I kept saying, ‘He’s a pro. He’s a grown man. He’s going to kick it. He’ll be fine.'”

AUBREY’S ASCENSION FROM national champion soccer player at Notre Dame to MLS first-round pick with Toronto FC to software engineer at GM Financial to a player for the Birmingham Stallions of the USFL and now NFL-record holder with the Cowboys has a connective tissue that started while watching football one Sunday with his wife, Jenn. But she wanted to clarify one point.

“It actually wasn’t after seeing [an NFL player’s] missed kick, because I think anytime a player misses an opportunity, the reaction is, ‘Oh, I could’ve done that,'” Jenn said. “We were just watching a game and I was thinking, ‘Honestly, Brandon can do that.’

“I know he thought it was a little far-fetched. But what made me think it was watching him [play soccer] at Notre Dame … he had an incredible shot. … I knew he had a good leg, but I don’t know I could imagine this.”

Then came the Google search. The first result that appeared was “One on One Kicking” with Egan.

At Aubrey’s first workout with Egan, he was with four middle and high school kickers. One of them was Josh Plaster, who is now a punter at the University of Oklahoma.

At the time, Plaster was a 17-year-old junior from Flower Mound (Texas) High School.

“I thought maybe [Aubrey] was someone that went to college and was coming back to try to kick again in college, like some of the Australians,” Plaster said. “I don’t know, but we were pretty shocked when he showed up.”

At first, Aubrey was asking the kids questions, but then the tables turned.

“I could tell off the bat that his ball contact was something that’s out of a comic book,” Plaster said. “It’s unreal. He doesn’t swing his leg very hard and it’s a missile off his foot. Really high, really far.”

It didn’t take long for Egan to be impressed too.

“He had a couple of balls that were just really pure,” Egan said. “I looked at the other coaches and said, ‘This kid, he’s got something special to him.'”

Three days a week for the next two years, Aubrey and Egan would train together. When COVID-19 hit, they had to find different places to kick because some of their fields were closed. At one point, Aubrey was aiming at light poles for practice in a community park.

“He put the time and effort in to get to the point that he could compete at the highest level,” Egan said. “I told him, ‘Hey, it’s time to venture to these showcase camps.’ I’d done what I could for him, teaching him, but now he’s got to get your feet wet and see where you stand amongst your peers.”

AS HE TOOK aim at a football kicking career, connections between Aubrey, Notre Dame and the Cowboys began to appear.

At one of the showcases, he met former kicker John Carney, who starred at Notre Dame before having a long NFL career. Aubrey impressed enough that he was picked in the 32nd round (No. 260 overall) in the 2022 USFL draft by the Birmingham Stallions coached by Skip Holtz. Skip’s father, Lou, was the Irish’s head coach and Skip served as an assistant.

Stallions special teams coach Chris Boniol had a tie to the Cowboys — he was their kicker from 1994 to 1996. He won a Super Bowl with them in 1995 and held the team mark for consecutive kicks made at 27. From 2011 to 2013, he was an assistant special teams coach on Jason Garrett’s staff.

Boniol coached Dan Bailey, who was an undrafted free agent in 2011 and became the most accurate kicker in team history (88.2%). He immediately saw a similarity between Bailey and Aubrey.

“He’s got the physical talent, but I thought the makeup was one of the biggest things people overlooked,” Boniol said of Aubrey. “He’s very even, constant, flatline personality. He’s never too excited. Never too frustrated. Just tremendous poise.”

With the Stallions, Boniol put Aubrey through different situations in practice to get him ready for game action: delays for an instant replay review, a last-second timeout, a mayday moment at the end of a half or game.

In 2022, Aubrey made 18 of 22 field goal tries and 22 of 24 extra points for the Stallions. This past season, he made 14 of 15 field goal attempts and all 35 extra points.

Cowboys special teams coach John Fassel watched Aubrey in person at a game this past spring.

“He did his homework,” Boniol said of Fassel. “The scouting department did their homework. No other NFL team called me on him. None. Whereas the Cowboys turned over every stone.”

Aubrey signed with the Cowboys on July 6. The day before it became official, he called Egan to let him know. By the end of the month, he was in Oxnard, California, for training camp, competing for the kicker job with Tristan Vizcaino. By Aug. 7, Aubrey won the job.

“The best thing we did, clearly, was making a quick decision in training camp,” Cowboys coach Mike McCarthy said. “That’s where sometimes if you operate too quickly, it could bite you. But I think it was the best thing we did, and it’s a real credit to Brandon. Just watching him kick early in training camp, his talent level is something that we all wanted to unleash and make sure he got all the reps.”

GROWING UP IN Plano, Texas, Aubrey was a soccer player first, but he was also a Cowboys fan.

“When we first started dating, he bought me a Cowboys jersey. He said, ‘All right, we wear this on Sundays,'” said Jenn, who played lacrosse at Notre Dame for two years. “My family had allegiances to another team, but not anymore.”

It was a No. 88 Dez Bryant jersey. Now, she wears her husband’s No. 17 to games.

That he became his hometown team’s kicker is surreal to them. His job at GM Financial was in Arlington, Texas, not far from AT&T Stadium. When he drives home from games, he is on the same road he took to work back then.

Aubrey never could have imagined setting an NFL record by becoming the first kicker with multiple field goals of at least 59 yards in one game. He broke Bailey’s team record for most consecutive kicks made at 31 Sunday against the Bills. He is on pace to set an NFL record for most touchbacks in a season.

He now has media at his locker each week asking questions. He appeared on “The Dan Patrick Show” last week. But he does his best to avoid what is being said and written about him.

“It’s been a little bit of a circus, I would say,” Aubrey said. “But looking forward to getting past it and moving on to the next game and just making the next kick.”

There is a family message group without him called “The family sans BA.”

“At the very beginning, he sat us all down and said, ‘Hey, I want to let y’all know I don’t want to be distracted by anything out there, what they’re saying about me, good or bad. I don’t want the bad stuff to be in my mind. And if everything is really good and I hear that, then as soon as we’re not sharing, that implies something bad,'” Jenn said. “He just wanted to keep his mind clear.”

Going around town has become harder as the season has progressed, not that he has noticed.

“I try to keep the hat low,” Aubrey said.

“He’s such a humble guy that I don’t think he wants to admit people do recognize him” said Jenn.

One night, the Aubreys were out with some of Jenn’s co-workers from American Airlines, where she is a pilot instructor, when two girls who weren’t part of their group asked for a selfie. Another night, they were walking into their favorite restaurant. Jenn remembers her husband was wearing black pants and a gray shirt without any Cowboys markings. But he was wearing a True Brvnd hat with the familiar upside down and backward Dallas logo.

“Somebody walking out was holding the door, looked up and down and his eyes were huge,” Jenn said, “and then he goes, ‘Go Cowboys.'”

That didn’t happen when he played in Toronto or even Birmingham.

It certainly did not happen when he was kicking at Warren Sports Complex.

“All greats have a story,” Egan said.

And then there is this story:

Brandon and Jenn met as high school seniors at a function in North Texas for incoming students to Notre Dame. They have been together ever since, and later this month, they will celebrate their fifth wedding anniversary.

While they are far from the time when Brandon won $200 off Prescott, they see a tangible reminder of that day on his left ring finger.

“His ring finger was broken from soccer,” Jenn said, “and so he had a really big knuckle and a wedding ring wouldn’t fit. So we had one of those silicone athletic wedding rings. And as we’re on the altar I’m trying to put on that silicone ring, and that was fun. So we never bought a ring. Then a little later, [the swelling] in is finger had gone down a little bit, enough to have a real ring. And we bought that ring with help from the money Dak paid him.

“So indirectly, Dak bought his wedding ring.”