There are plenty of talking points at the moment when it comes to Michigan football. The Wolverines are under scrutiny by the NCAA, the Big Ten, and the media when it comes to the football program while they’re under investigation.
But Michigan will need to block out the outside noise this week. The Wolverines are finally going to be tested. Michigan will head to State College and take on Penn State on Saturday. It will mark the first game Michigan has played this season facing a ranked opponent and this opponent is the 10th-ranked team in the country with the only blemish coming to the hands of Ohio State.
The lack of competition talk will go away if Michigan can continue it’s winning ways on Saturday and beat the Nittany Lions on the road.
Here are my three keys for the Wolverines to win.
1. Win the third quarter
This might be the biggest talking point relating to the game. Neither Michigan nor Penn State have allowed a point in the third quarter and both teams have dominated it offensively.
The Wolverines are outscoring their opponents 114-0 in the third quarter and Penn State is up 97-0 in the same quarter.
We’re talking about two of the top defenses in the nation as well. Michigan is first allowing 6.7 points per game and PSU is ranked third giving up 11.9 points per game. Obviously, the big talking point there is how well both teams come out of halftime prepared on both sides of the ball. Both Michigan and Penn State get going offensively in the third quarter, as well as both defensive units shutting the opposition down.
Both teams average over 40 points per game offensively. While both defenses are stout, it’s hard to imagine both can completely shut the other down. It feels like these third-quarter stats are important and it will be paramount for Michigan to win the third quarter on Saturday.
2. Win the turnover battle
Michigan has a +9 turnover margin. The Wolverines have gained 15 turnovers while giving the ball away four times. While that seems like a good margin, and it is, Penn State actually leads the nation in turnover margin.
Penn State is +16 on the year and the next closest team is Navy at +12. PSU has gained a whopping 20 turnovers and has only given the ball up four times in 2023. The Nittany Lions have forced 10 fumbles and intercepted the ball 10 times.
Both defenses always have an eye for where the ball is, and while it’s important that Michigan doesn’t play scared offensively — it must run the offense like it has been all year — the Wolverines cannot get too loose and carefree either. Penn State has proven time and time again that it has NFL talent on the defense and the Nittany Lions will make you pay for your mistake.
The Wolverines defense has been rolling as of recent games — forcing turnovers. And Michigan will not only need to play mistake-free ball on Saturday, but the Wolverines need to make Drew Allar and the PSU offense pay for their mistakes when they make one.
3. Take pressure off of J.J. McCarthy
This was one of my takeaways from a week ago during Michigan’s win over Purdue. The Wolverines won convincingly and dominated for the most part, and J.J. threw for 345 yards, but McCarthy also made a few errant passes. It felt like the only way Michigan could move the ball against Purdue was by McCarthy’s arm.
Even though Blake Corum rushed for three touchdowns, Michigan’s run game was almost non-existent last week. In fact, the Wolverines’ 110 rushing yards as a team against the Boilermakers was the lowest output Michigan had on the ground all season. The game before, against Michigan State, was the second-lowest with 120 yards.
It won’t get any easier this week. PSU has the 2nd-ranked run defense allowing 60.3 yards per game on the ground. But for McCarthy’s sake, the Wolverines need to find some way to be more efficient running the ball. Between the O-line opening up more holes and the running backs finding those holes — Michigan has to run the football.
J.J. is one of the best QBs in the nation and he can put the team on his back to win a game. But playing in a hostile environment, there will be added pressure, and if Michigan can give him some extra help — by running the football — it may not seem like such a tall task going up against the Penn State defense.
